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Friday, January 30, 2009

Death Rattle of our current economic order

First, thanks for inviting me to join this endeavor, Shy Wolf.

My first entry will explain why we must start preparing now for what's to come.

Most people, my in-laws and many friends and family included, believe that Obama's fiscal "stimulus" plan will save us.

They think that a crisis caused by too much debt and credit can be solved by moving the bad debts onto the public's balance sheet (the bailouts), along with a jolt of government spending (the stimulus).

That's like trying to cure an alcoholic by giving him more booze. The government boondoggles will risk making the US government insolvent, and at the very least, put a crushing tax burden and inflationary environment onto our children's shoulders. A good web site with primers on this mess can be found here:

I also recommend: http://ashizashiz.blogspot.com/

The nail in the coffin is the proven fact that the world's oil output has peaked. That does NOT mean we are out of oil... Peak Oil theorists have never made that claim. There will always be more oil in the ground. The important question, though, is at what point the remaining oil becomes too difficult or energy-intensive to extract. There is a concept called ROEI, return on energy investment. If it takes more energy to drill, pump, extract and refine the oil than you get out of it, then it doesn't make economic sense to produce it. We've hit the point where energy production at most of the biggest, oldest oil fields around the world (Saudi Arabia, Mexico, etc.) has started to decline at startling rates.

Once the economy starts its pseudo-recovery due to the stimulus program, oil prices will shoot through the roof, snapping the American consumer in the ass like a wet gym towel.

The DEATH RATTLE of our economic system has come. In one last, futile effort that costs trillions of dollars, the powers that be are going to make the system breathe one last horrid shuddering breath, before it all comes crashing down.

Please see Dmitri Orlov's site for details on what to expect:

The conclusion: it's getting close to too late to start a serious prep (maybe). Or maybe we have another year or two as the stimulus package jolts the terminally ill economy one last time.

Start prepping now.

For those interested, I am started a new blog to document the the "death rattle" - maybe it's wasted effort, but at the least, I will post links to the latest data and best articles I can find on the subject. My new blog is here:

On that subject, everyone in my company just got an email saying that one of our biggest suppliers is going out of business suddenly, today, with 3 hours notice to their employees.


  1. Glad to see you on board Publius. Thanks for giving Shy a hand

  2. Publius, thank you very much for accepting the invite. Looks as though our 'styles' are very similar- suh-weeeeeeet. And good topic. I am so gonna have some fun telling a lot of people "I toldja so.."
    But then, the opposite may be true, too: I dunno about snowballs in hell, but what if... nah, I can't go there. Not a chance.
    I'll be checking out your other site, too- thanks for the links.


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